China Bounce

Gonna try to keep this apolitical. Lets just say if we have an incident involving Pelosi and Taiwan I think it will cause a short term spike in spot prices. I also believe just like with Ukraine it will be very short lived. Any thoughts?

I don't follow the 'news' much but yes I'd agree, there would be a bounce.

Predictive analytics (I don't share this elsewhere, and they are not 100% of course) say that the CCP will be overthrown in the next year or two btw. You heard it here first!

Will be yesterdays news by tomorrow

Declining world super power and emerging world super power both flexing muscles but no intention of fighting

OK I've looked a bit more into the predictive analytics I have available to me.

Please ignore/don't shoot the messenger.

Take this with a huge pinch of salt (I am at present) but they show me a series of dominoes falling, very rapidly, starting probably around September. If this does occur then I will rely more on my source:

1) The CCP will be overthrown by the end of the year, so China will be a full Nationalist state (unlike the wimps they have been)

2) Biden will be removed. More than that - the Republicans will take America and it will become both very conservative, and isolationist. This will lead to much good for the US as the hundreds of billions it sends abroad are instead invested internally. But it'll be a very strict nation. Many good things will come out of it but some freedoms will be lost.

@kimchi Wanna bet?

The Cat's Mother wrote: @kimchi  Wanna bet?

Wanna bet about what?

kimchi wrote:

The Cat's Mother wrote: @kimchi  Wanna bet?

Wanna bet about what?

Your predictions that, by the end of the year:
1. The CCP will be overthrown
2. Biden will have been removed (I am assuming you mean for reasons other than his health) and the US will become an isolationist ultra Republican state.

The Cat's Mother wrote:

kimchi wrote:

The Cat's Mother wrote: @kimchi  Wanna bet?

Wanna bet about what?

Your predictions that, by the end of the year:
1. The CCP will be overthrown
2. Biden will have been removed (I am assuming you mean for reasons other than his health) and the US will become an isolationist ultra Republican state.

I started my post by saying explicitly ignore me and don't shoot the messenger. I then went further on to explain if these came true then I would have more faith in the predictive analytic data that I am receiving (which, if it happens, will be of benefit to us all). I don't think I could have been clearer???

We will see.

I am not a gambling man. If I was then please tell me how I could have predicted in advance that Usain Bolt would both win 8 AND 9 Olympic Golds (but, exclusively). It's impossible. And please tell me where I could have made such a bet. The odds would have been astronomical, a £1 bet would have made me a millionaire.

Usain Bolt won his 3 x 3 Gold Medals at 2016 Rio. That is the 3x3 I predicted, and was hailed at the time. However a year or so later one of his relay teammates was retrospectively eliminated for doping, and that medal was taken off him.

So, if you can tell me how I knew this in advance I am happy to make a bet with you The predictive analytics I have at the moment are a scientific analysis rather than my own intuition/'fore-knowing' and don't come from me. But my sense is that they are pretty valid to some extent.

I do expect a series of events in the autumn that will rock the world since nothing we've seen since the collapse of the Soviets in the late 80s/early 90s etc.

Dominoes - I do believe they will start falling this autumn.

Okay pet, so you don't wanna bet.
And I haven't the faintest idea how, or whether, you predicted Usain Bolt's success since I didn't know you in 2016. I imagine any bookie would have taken the bet though.

I do agree Biden is likely to be removed.
His health iis not the best currently but a bad performance in Novembers mid term elections by the democrats will see them use his health as an excuse for removing him as president, not his various failings or the blatant corruption that his sons laptop emails have shown.

Another corrupt politician, who would ever have expected such a thing!

The Cat's Mother wrote:Okay pet, so you don't wanna bet.
And I haven't the faintest idea how, or whether, you predicted Usain Bolt's success since I didn't know you in 2016. I imagine any bookie would have taken the bet though.

I don't believe bookies can take any 'impossible' bets, and it's illegal. But you're the gambler, you tell me.

I can prove exactly via email (all timestamped etc) I predicted Usain Bolt in advance (I'm not prepared to share private emails in public).

I never offered it as a certainty (far from it - and hopefully quite the opposite) but I'll bet if you want. If it comes to pass it'll be a hollow 'victory' for me just as Covid was, because it means 'not good things' are coming.

I am not a 'pet' - don't patronize me like that please, thank you.

Sorry you didn't like the rhyme.

The Cat's Mother wrote:Sorry you didn't like the rhyme.

I don't find it funny to joke about such serious stuff. To try to be 'jokey' when people are putting a lot of thought into things is at best very rude imvho.

Ok do I need to jump in or am I ok to move this thread on?

I know we all have different views for politics and others..... but remember to respect others opinions and views. I can honestly say that I have not agreed with a lot on this thread. However RESPECT is important. It is not a power trip, but if I need to step in to have order I will. 

Now play nice.   

Admin wrote:Ok do I need to jump in or am I ok to move this thread on?

I know we all have different views for politics and others..... but remember to respect others opinions and views. I can honestly say that I have not agreed with a lot on this thread. However RESPECT is important. It is not a power trip, but if I need to step in to have order I will. 

Now play nice.   

Did I start a Kerfuffle?

I dont have enough knowledge about China to make a judgement so I will pass on that one.

I predict IF we have the so-called "red Tsunami" Biden will be article 25ed in short order. He may be 25ed anyway.

Soon enough the American speaker will go home, China will stop its military exercises around Taiwan and it will be yesterdays news.

Both sides have far more to lose than to gain at this moment.

Mike Xonox wrote:

Admin wrote:Ok do I need to jump in or am I ok to move this thread on?

I know we all have different views for politics and others..... but remember to respect others opinions and views. I can honestly say that I have not agreed with a lot on this thread. However RESPECT is important. It is not a power trip, but if I need to step in to have order I will. 

Now play nice.   

Did I start a Kerfuffle?

I dont have enough knowledge about China to make a judgement so I will pass on that one.

I predict IF we have the so-called "red Tsunami" Biden will be article 25ed in short order. He may be 25ed anyway.

Absolutely not, The subject had gong off the original topic and personal opinions or views started to become out of control.

Apologies  @Mike Xonox for derailing your thread, it is not your 'fault' at all

I have quite a few predictions at my fingertips now. Big things are coming which will change the world as we know it imvho.

Just see. From October onwards (a chain of events that will continue into 2024 and beyond)...

I don't want to rock the boat, be accused of being 'political' etc, so I won't say any more.

Good wishes and much love to all!!! <3

Hi kimchi,
Feel free to share your predictions.

It doesn’t really matter if your right or wrong, it’s interesting to here how people think the UK and the wider world will change going forward.

I do think the potential for civil unrest over energy bills could be an ignition for major civil unrest.
What concerns me is the current 2 prime minister candidates don’t seem to apprentice how big the cost of living crisis is and don’t have any tangible ideas for how they will deal with it.
Hoping it goes away is as awful as the Bank of England telling the world inflation is not a risk or the USA president saying inflation is just transitory.

Mike Xonox wrote:Gonna try to keep this apolitical. Lets just say if we have an incident involving Pelosi and Taiwan I think it will cause a short term spike in spot prices. I also believe just like with Ukraine it will be very short lived. Any thoughts?

@Mike Xonox it looks like you were correct as the spot prices for gold and silver have shot up. Could this be due to the China tensions or wider gloomy global economic outlook? Or both? It seems that big investors are suddenly hoovering up silver, and people are predicting a crash of global economies soon. I am struggling with who to believe but it does seem that precious metals may be a safer wealth storage option than currency and shares.

Now more than ever Bitcoin and crypto play a role in the gold and silver price.

Before gold and silver didn’t have a rival in terms of storing your wealth but I do think the emergence of Bitcoin and others has dampened the gold and silver prices although not as significantly as other factors.

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-geopolitics-of-inflation/

Though it’s difficult to be confident of anything in the current flux we’re experiencing, I am pretty confident of three things:

1) Price is set on the margins.

2) Currencies are the foundation of every economy.

3) The financial forecasts issued to calm the public do not reflect operative geopolitical goals.

Let’s break this down. Every national government has “global interests.” Governments naturally do whatever they can to boost dynamics favorable to the state and nation, and obstruct or hinder dynamics injurious to the state or nation.

As a general rule, nations have relatively few levers they can pull to influence global finance, trade, growth, currencies or the geopolitical balance of power. One such lever is the interest the state pays on its sovereign bonds.

Leverage

If a central bank/state increases the interest it pays on its bonds, that attracts capital seeking higher return (presuming the bond is perceived as safe from default). This inflow of capital strengthens demand for its currency, because the bonds are denominated in the state’s currency.

As the currency strengthens vis-à-vis other currencies, it buys more goods and services. Imports become cheaper and the nation’s exports become more costly to those using other currencies.

Another lever is to reduce the exports of commodities, especially essential commodities like energy and grains. If this reduction reduces the global supply, the price leaps.

If allies get the exports and enemies don’t, this punishes enemies and rewards allies.

A third lever is to limit imports. A consumer nation can limit imports from specific exporters, or make do with domestic supplies or only buy from allies.

A fourth lever is to meet with allies and reach an agreement about finance and commodities to stave off imbalances that threaten the stability of the alliance.

An example of this is the 1985 Plaza Accord that weakened the U.S. dollar at the expense of the Japanese yen and European currencies. The strong dollar was crushing U.S. exports and generating destabilizing trade deficits in the U.S.

Each of these levers has geopolitical consequences.

It’s All Connected

Financial actions such as raising interest rates are presented as purely financial, but their geopolitical consequences are not lost on the nation’s political/military leadership.

Boosting or trimming exports of commodities can be presented as financial as well, even when the real purpose is geopolitical.

In other words, events which are presented as solely financial can also serve geopolitical aims beneath the domestic-centric rah-rah.

Consider how the price of oil contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In the mid-to-late 1980s, the price of oil fell and stayed relatively low for years.

In 1986, oil fell under $10/barrel. Adjusted for inflation, this was lower than prices paid in the late 1950s.

Although this ample oil supply was fundamentally a result of super-major oil fields discovered in the 1960s and 1970s coming online, it had a geopolitical consequence few fully appreciate: It pushed the Soviet Union over the fiscal cliff into collapse.

No Coincidence, Comrade

Oil and natural gas exports were the primary source of the Soviets’ hard cash it needed to buy goods and commodities from other nations. Once the oil revenues dried up, the Soviet Union was no longer financially viable.

Was this lengthy “glut” of oil just good luck for the U.S., or was a policy agreement with Saudi Arabia and other oil exporters that “nudged” the price lower also a factor?

What do you reckon — pure luck or luck “nudged” to achieve a geopolitical goal? Given the high stakes and the vulnerability of the USSR to low oil prices, is it plausible that it was entirely happy happenstance?

In the 37 years since the Plaza Accord, the U.S. has endeavored to keep the dollar relatively weak for a number of reasons: to limit trade deficits and avoid putting undue pressure on emerging countries with debts denominated in USD and nations that imported commodities priced in USD, which is virtually all commodities.

This weak-dollar policy has changed, with profound implications. The soaring USD is adding a currency “surcharge” on top of rising prices for commodities such as oil and grain.

A Double-Whammy of Inflation

Take Japan as an example: The yen has weakened 20% against the USD. This means every commodity priced in USD is 20% higher in price for those using yen.

Add the increase in cost due to global scarcities and that’s a double-whammy hit of inflation.

These sharp increases in inflation/price of essentials are recessionary as demand craters. People simply don’t have enough earnings to pay higher costs for essentials and maintain their discretionary spending on goods and services.

Recall that price is set on the margins. If supply of oil falls 5 million barrels per day (BPD), price rises. But if demand falls 10 million BPD, the price of oil plummets.

As the price of oil falls, oil exporters receive much less money, and so they compensate by pumping more oil. This serves to further depress prices.

Who would benefit from a rising U.S. dollar and a global recession, and who would be hurt? The U.S. would benefit from a higher USD because that lowers the cost of all imports. Everyone else using weaker currencies would pay more for imported commodities.

As demand for oil falls, the price plummets. That helps consumer nations and hurts oil exporters.

Is China the Target?

As the USD rises, it drags every currency pegged to the USD higher with it, making their exports more expensive. That would pressure China’s exports, forcing China to adjust its currency peg, reducing the purchasing power of everyone using yuan/RMB.

Is the looming global recession merely “bad luck” or could an unavoidable global recession be “nudged” to serve geopolitical aims?

The forces that have been unleashed (higher interest rates, scarcities, strong dollar) will take time to work through the global economy. The USD may drop and oil may rise over the next few months, but where will global demand and oil be in a year?

What Really Matters

Many people expect the dollar to weaken and the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates back to zero once the recession becomes undeniable.

I am not so sure. A case can be made that interest rates have completed a 40-year cycle of decline and are now in a secular cycle higher.

A case can also be made that the weak-dollar policy has ended and the dollar will move higher, accelerating the financial and geopolitical consequences described above.

A strong currency exports inflation to those nations which do not issue the currency. Luck, coincidence or “nudge”?

Maybe it doesn’t matter. Maybe what matters is that it’s happening.

History plays a big part, but so does new world demands. 

Yes I think it was a wink wink, nudge nudge. 

Why is America and Other countries so focused on Taiwan ?   It is no surprise! 

Why is the world so dependant on Ukraine? 

Why have we not seen a huge spike in certain precious metals that we all know are mined in Russia. 

With oil and gas prices on the rise, when is breaking point?   My personal example is for our house we paid £60 per mouth in Gas and Electric. 
we are currently paying over £500 per month This is since February this year!    And they claim it will rise! 


Whilst I paid £1.17 for Petrol in February this year... I now pay only £1.68 per litre.  As I am not driving a lot ( in fact I cant remember when I drove last )   But that does not really effect me. The £440 increase per month does. 

Then there is Food, ( with 2 young teenage boys )   

So what will be the future?  who knows. The US is a key player in all of this but the UK remains on its own since Brexit.  Meaning this could be good for the US and UK but not good for Europe.   Just a thought... Then you have the Russia, China, Cuba and a few others..... to say the least joining forces... I do not know about you, but I am looking at this from a historical perspective. 

@Admin I was paying £80/month for gas and electricity. Now it’s £180. How did yours go up to £500?!

I have no clue!!! We are seriously paying over £500 !!!! I am nagging the wife to check because we were usually in credit. 

And yes that is with the workshop and furnaces going... so it is slightly eek.